The period from March to June is traditionally the most expensive for basic food commodities monitored by the State Commission on Commodity Exchanges and Wholesale Markets. Although since January it has changed methodology for the Index of auction prices and the observed 32 commodities, its values in late February and early March, again registered an increase. At the end of last month the index broke the 1500-point threshold and it can be expected that the increase will continue in March. Indeed, it can be predicted that it may exceed its levels from last year (1536 and 1533 points), after on March 5th the level of the index reached 1,523 points. The new methodology brought the levels down from 2,000 points to 1,500 points, but this is only a technical change and it cannot affect the market trends and may not limit the appreciation of the new 32 products in the consumer basket.
Among the goods with the greatest potential for appreciation in March and April are the meat and dairy products, experts claim. Although the first two months of 2012 the increase in their price has not been great – averaging around 0.5-1.0% on a weekly basis – it is permanent and not likely to stabilize or reverse. Pork is with higher prices, which is also best selling in cold winter days, but the chicken is also more expensive, which remains the cheapest meat in Bulgaria. Sausages of all qualities are also on the rise.
Sunflower oil also increased its wholesale value, although a significant part of it is imported and does not depend on the domestic supply and demand. The most unpredictable remains the group of fruit and vegetables, whose prices movein both directions.
For example, oranges had an average retail price in January and February of BGN1.26 per kilogram, but there are also periods of discount sales and promotions that see oranges fall below BGN1. Bananas are offered at an average price of BGN2.59 lev per kilogram, but some overripe lots may be found at BGN1.90 and even as low as BGN1.70.
Overall food prices in 2012 will increase, experts note. This is a global trend, but In Bulgaria there is the additional factor of a limited consumption, which makes it impossible to profit from sales volumes.
