Current measures delay the spread of the coronavirus in Bulgaria and under "these measures we can wait months, even more," without excluding a second peak in morbidity. This is Assoc. Prof. Atanas Mangurov’s opinion, Head of the Children's Clinic at the Infection Hospital in Sofia. Mangarov was part of the dissolved Medical Council to the government, which prepared an expert report with recommendations for fighting coronavirus.
"It is very possible to start the reopening of new cases, as has happened in some countries, which were closed very tightly and then opened," Atanas Mangurov commented to BNR, having been asked about the possibility of a second wave due to the artificial retention of the spread of the virus.
"More infected people are being identified because more research is being done” For the time being, it can be said that in our country, by the most modest estimates, there are over 300,000 people who have already been infected. There is nothing new about identifying people who are currently releasing the virus, we have not detected them so far, "he explained. In his words, currently, the most massive research being done in our country is based on an internet platform in which 16 laboratories from all over the country register their results. "They have done about 2,500 tests so far, of which about 120 people have been found to have met with the coronavirus. This is, for the time being, the most reliable serological study being done which continues to be done. The figure, 300,000 people, is based on the data from this survey, "Mangurov clarified.
According to him, it is not enough. "To get to a level where we can expect this epidemic to wane, people who have encountered the virus must become over 70 percent of the country's population, making about 4 million," Mangurov said.
Assoc. Prof. Atanas Mangurov emphasized that it is not necessary to survey 70 percent of the population and draw a parallel with the exit polls during elections. "We should find a few samples, test the people and find out what percentage of the population has encountered the virus," he explained.
"This is the same as during the elections. You don't have to drink the whole cup to know it's bitter. These are statistical methods that determine the extent of the spread of the virus among the population. As before the elections, the political attitudes of the population are established. The more people are tested, the more accurate this research will be, "Atanas Mangurov emphasized. According to him, the point of growing mass PCR tests is to isolate people who have been found positive.
Atanas Mangurov confirmed that more than 70 percent of the population must be infected so as to form the so-called herd immunity. "In more than 90 percent of cases, they will experience the disease asymptomatically, without even knowing. A very small number of them will become truly ill. The children are not in this group," he also commented on renewed immunizations process and parents' fears of asymptomatic severity of coronavirus in children.
"Children are probably the most insured against coronavirus infection. If they do get infected, nothing bad will happen to them. This is not the thing parents should be afraid of. They should be much more afraid of other diseases for which vaccines are being made, and should calmly go and get them. Asymptomatic course of the disease is not a contraindication to postpone vaccines. If the child is clinically healthy, if the doctor examines them and finds that there is nothing wrong with them clinically, he or she can easily be vaccinated. Nothing bad will happen to him, even if the child is infected with this virus," assured Prof. Mangurov.
