Whether Bulgaria’s Government was late with the convening of the Security Council on March 5 and the adoption of measures in relation to the crisis in Ukraine only time will tell. Because implementing a balanced foreign policy regarding the conflict, as one of the measures is to be, is not an easy task and cannot take place in a day or two. It is pointless to develop a national plan to respond to a refugee wave from Ukraine. First, this did not occur even in the most critical moments a week earlier. And secondly, most of the Ukrainians want either Russia, or Western Europe. Strange sounds also the planned review of the plans for the transfer of fresh and spent nuclear fuel from NPP Kozloduy as the hazardous waste, as always, is exported directly to Russia. The state would strengthen border and customs control on citizens goods or cargo to and from Ukraine concerning the trafficking of arms or goods with possible dual use, as if up to now illegal weapons trading was ever possible. Reviewed and updated are to be the plans for responding to any accident or radiological contamination on the territory of Ukraine, which could affect Bulgaria, but it is hard to comment on this issue – for the sea-neighboring Bulgaria there is no place or effective way to hide from a possible radiation.
Undoubtedly the most real and substantial presently seems the problem with the supply of natural gas. Five years after the gas crisis of 2009, which paralyzed the economy, now Bulgaria is facing a similar situation and we can only keep our fingers crossed that it may not come to this negative scenario. „Disruption of gas supply to Bulgaria remains a major economic threat; it may disrupt the work of Neftochim. In the medium term there is a risk for the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. There is a danger of immigration pressure as well as a risk of persistent impairment of relations between Russia and the European Union and hampering the implementation of the project South Stream,“ Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Tsvetlin Iovchev said after the meeting of the Security Council of Ministers.
This is why the government decided to create a national headquarters to monitor the situation in Ukraine and take measures to control and minimize the risks to the security of the country. What is also to be made is an assessment of the state stocks of natural gas and petroleum products, and opportunities to respond to short-term or medium-term supply disruption from Ukraine or lasting difficulties in the work of Lukoil Neftochim.
As much as the experts force themselves, however, the truth is simple – Bulgaria is still totally dependent on Russian gas through Ukraine and despite the warning it received in 2009 so far nothing to ensure Bulgaria’s energy independence was done.
The greatest hope is the storage facility in the village of Chiren, near Vratsa. The Ministry of Economy and Energy announced that there are 200 million cubic metres of natural gas that can satisfy the needs of the country for two months, in case there are problems with the supply of Russian natural gas through Ukraine. For some reason, however, no one says that the capacity of the facility is 550 million cubic metres, i.e. currently the country can not rely even on half of its useful volume.
As former Economy Minister Traicho Traikov said, in terms of financial costs this is prudent, but not in terms of energy security – not quite so. Not to mention that technologically it is not possible to obtain all the 200 million cubic metres from there and the capacity of production and injection into the transit network, depending on the pressure and other factors, ranges from 1 million cubic metres per day to the maximum 4.2 million cubic metres. At the same time the average daily consumption in the country is over 8 million cubic metres. Even if one adds the local gas production, the needs of the country can still not be satisfied.
Far from the idea to instill unnecessary tension, this problem would not have existed if the planned in 2009 expansion of the gas storage facility near Chiren worth 250 million euros had been carried out, and its capacity had been doubled. But due to the lack of urgency on the Bulgarian side, the project was not implemented, and is still on the table again for the European Commission to approve. Intentions for the creating a second gas storage facility near Cape Galata, Varna region, also reached a dead-end street.
The much talked about interconnections with our neighbours are still not into operation. To build the 170-kilometre-long interconnection stretch Bulgaria – Greece, was given a grant of 45 million euros for the project with a decision of Brussels, and the total cost of the project is estimated at 160 million euros. Feasibility study conducted by Jacobs Consultancy UK Ltd., showed that the project is economically, technically and environmentally realizable and it can transport between 3-5 billion cubic metres of natural gas per year. The direct effects of the construction of the interconnection are a real diversification of sources of supply of natural gas to Bulgaria, to allow for the supply of natural gas from the Southern Gas Corridor and liquefied natural gas.
Alas, despite all these benefits, it was at the beginning of last month that Bulgaria began land acquisition procedures for the lost through which the facility will pass so that the idea of diversification is still in its infancy. According to the government, in case of need the now existent transit pipeline through Kulata border point can be used for reversible delivery of about 3.5 million cubic metres of natural gas per day. One should not forget that Greece, too, imports nearly 60% of its natural gas from Russia, precisely through this tube. For supplies in liquefied gas or through the connection with Turkey contracts for certain quantities are necessary, which, according to the information available at the moment Bulgaria has not concluded.
Because of problems in the construction of the underwater trajectory of the connection between the gas systems of Bulgaria and Romania the work on the interconnector Ruse-Giurgiu was postponed in January 2014 for the end of this month.
The cost of the route is 23.8 million euros, of which 8.929 million euros come from the European Energy Programme for Recovery. The recent concerns of the Bulgarian Ministry of Economy and Energy, however, were that „the possibility of reversibility of the connection so that it can be used to supply gas from Romania to Bulgaria is not yet definitively confirmed.“ This indicates that in this project the preliminary work has most probably not been done properly.
As the pipes to Turkey and Serbia are concerned, it is early days yet for them to be discussed at all. They will wait for better times in the bright, but distant future.
But surely what Sofia and Brussels have the most reason to regret now is that Nabucco pipeline was abandoned as a project.
„Why did we allow the suspension of Nabucco, why did we let Turkey, with the consent of the United States, destroy this project?“ – asked once former energy minister at the time the tripartite coalition Rumen Ovcharov. He explained crystally clear the benefits of it – it’s good to have another source of constant supply, rather than make connections with neighbours who will stay empty for most of the year.
Realistically Nabucco would have been the only alternative to Russian natural gas not only for Bulgaria but for half of the Old Continent, which can also be seriously hurt in the event of an escalating situation in Ukraine and reducing gas supplies. What now we all can pray for is to hopefully get away from a gas crisis. Otherwise nothing good is waiting for Sofia.
The BANKER
