Ironically, Bulgaria’s labour market has become a testing ground for high-priced, but failing experiments. Past governments „planted“ all sorts of programmes, projects and schemes, but jobs never became excessively abundant. State labour offices bundled with operational businesses managed to absorb hundreds of millions of euros, and the effect was zero. Or rather – the effect was negative, as unemployment stubbornly refused to fall, permanent jobs were opened only in government programmes and those cleaners sweeping the streets and gardens after several of low-wage struggle again queued to get social aid in labour offices.
Clearly, someone finally got to put order in this quagmire to stop indiscriminate waste of public money. In this respect it is commendable that the social ministry wants to permanently solve the problem all the way up to 2028. So, competent minister Ademov and his colleagues with a hint of complacency presented the new, fancy project called „a forecasting system for the needs of the workforce with certain characteristics.“ The presented results, however, did not managed to convince anybody that the whole thing was worth even half of the totally spent 900,000 levs.
First, the social ministry failed to present the notorious mathematical model, that according to the Ministry of Finance, the National Revenue Agency and the Employment Agency has calculated how many and which employees will be sought after by businesses in the next 15 years. And this is not a small technical detail, because without clear explanation it is just another blind move. By what laws of mathematics, for example, it can be expected by the end of 2018 the average employment for the country to grow by about 5% (to just over 3 million people), while and in the longer term, between 2019 to 2028 – because of the negative demographic trends, it should fall by almost 4 percent?
According to Deputy Minister Iveta Iankova by 2018 270,000 jobs will be opened, with more than 157,000 of them being for specialists with secondary education, and 118,000 for university graduates. Estimates of the Operational Programme Human Resources Development 2014-2020 show that the country will receive over 596 million levs on poverty reduction and social inclusion. The money will be used by the state to provide employment, education, training, healthcare and social services with the advantage of Roma population and foreigners as beneficiaries to get them back on track.
Another paradox are the unmotivated „jumps“ in demand for certain professions. Studies of social ministry show that the most deficient professions on the market now are programmers, engineers, doctors, teachers, sales consultants, machine operators, drivers, waiters and cooks. These professionals are sought after in the western part of Europe and they prefer to work and earn there, while teachers are aging, poorly paid and endangered species.
However, on what basis the „system“ knows that in 2018 most jobs will be in the retail sector, education, construction and transport. Estimates of the Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce show that the retail companies in the period 2008-2012 decreased by 20 percent due to the increased number of bankruptcies among small businesses.
The BANKER
