банки

The new forecasts may in part reflect changes in the FOMC since the last meeting, including the departures of Governor Daniel Tarullo and Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, and the arrival of new Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.

In any event, interest-rate projections for 2018 and 2019 are becoming less reliable guides to future policy amid the likelihood that the Fed’s Board of Governors will see a major makeover in the next year.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

Паричният комитет ще стартира програмата за нормализиране на баланса си ощ през тази година, ако икономиката на страната се развива според очакванията.

The Committee currently expects to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated. This program, which would gradually reduce the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings by decreasing reinvestment of principal payments from those securities, is described in the accompanying addendum to the Committee’s Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; and Jerome H. Powell. Voting against the action was Neel Kashkari, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the existing target range for the federal funds rate.

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Board

Federal Reserve officials forged ahead with an interest-rate increase and additional plans to tighten monetary policy despite growing concerns over weak inflation.

Policy makers agreed to raise their benchmark lending rate for the third time in six months, maintained their outlook for one more hike in 2017 and set out some details for how they intend to shrink their $4.5 trillion balance sheet this year.

“Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the committee is monitoring inflation developments closely,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement Wednesday following a two-day meeting in Washington. “The committee currently expects to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated.”

Policy makers also issued forecasts showing another three quarter-point rate increases in 2018, similar to the previous projections in March.

The Fed’s actions and words struck a careful balance between showing resolve to continue tightening in response to falling unemployment while acknowledging the persistence of unexpectedly low inflation this year.

“Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term,” the statement said.

The committee had previously described inflation as close to their goal.

Economic Data

Data released earlier Wednesday showed that, on a year-over-year basis, the core version of consumer price inflation, which strips out food and energy components, slowed for the fourth straight month, to 1.7 percent in May. Following that news, the probability that the June hike would be followed by another increase this year dropped to about 28 percent from 48 percent, according to pricing in fed funds futures contracts

В отделно съобщение на 14 юни Федералният резерв разкри и подробности от плана си за намаление на раздутия си до 4484 млрд. щ. долара баланс. Това ще става чрез постепенното изтегляне на фиксирано количество активи на месечна база. Първоначално то ще се ограничи до 10 млрд. долара на месец – намаление на реинвестираните плащания по главниците на ДЦК с 6 млрд. долара и на гарантираните с ипотеки книжа с 4 млрд. долара. Този таван ще се увеличава на всеки три месеца с 6 млрд. долара за правителствените облигации и с 4 млрд. долара за ипотечните инструменти докато те достигнат съответно 30 и 20 млрд. долара. Паричният комитет ще стартира програмата за нормализиране на банковия баланс още през тази година, ако икономиката на страната се развива според очакванията. Не бе оповестено кога точно ще започне процеса и колко голям ще бъде банковия портфейл след приключването му.

Officials didn’t reveal the exact timing of when the process will begin this year, as well as specifically how large the portfolio might be when finished.

The FOMC retained language that it expects to keep raising interest rates at a “gradual” pace if economic data play out in line with forecasts.

Yellen Remarks

Yellen is scheduled to hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. where reporters are likely to ask, among other topics, about her outlook for rates and the balance sheet.

Wednesday’s decision brings the Fed’s target for the federal funds rate, which covers overnight loans between banks, to a range of 1 percent to 1.25 percent.

The vote was 8-1, with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari dissenting from a rate increase for the second time this year, preferring no change.

Quarterly projections for 2018 and 2019 showed Fed policy makers largely maintained their expected path for borrowing costs. The median forecast still has the central bank making three quarter-point increases in 2018; the end-2019 rate is seen at 2.9 percent, a slight change from 3 percent in the March projections.

The Fed has in recent weeks wrestled with contradictory signals from unemployment and inflation. Joblessness in the U.S. dropped to a 16-year low at 4.3 percent in May. Despite that, the Fed’s favorite measure of price pressures, excluding food and energy components, rose just 1.5 percent in the 12 months through April, down from 1.8 percent in February. The Fed’s target for inflation is 2 percent.

Inflation Projections

The recent economic developments prompted FOMC members to drop their median projection for inflation to 1.6 percent in 2017, from 1.9 percent forecast in March. The median forecasts for 2018 and 2019, however, were unchanged at 2 percent.

They also reduced slightly their estimate for the lowest sustainable level of long-run unemployment to 4.6 percent from 4.7 percent. That change, and the reduction in the 2017 inflation forecast, could reduce the urgency policy makers feel to hike rates again in coming months, especially if inflation remains soft.

“Job gains have moderated but have been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has declined,” the FOMC statement said.

Economic-growth projections were little changed, with the median forecast for 2017 moving to 2.2 percent from 2.1 percent.

The FOMC next meets in six weeks, on July 25-26. A Bloomberg survey of 43 economists conducted June 5-8 showed a median expectation for rate hikes in June and September, followed by the start of balance-sheet unwinding in the fourth quarter.

The ECB cut its inflation outlook for each year through 2019 because of weaker energy costs, while raising its forecasts for economic growth. Officials now see inflation at 1.6 percent in 2019, down from a March projection for 1.7 percent. They increased their view for expansion by a 10th of a percentage point annually.

Commerzbank Said to Offer Early Retirement to 3,000 Staff

bySteven Arons

@StevenArons More stories by Steven Arons

‎30‎ ‎май‎ ‎2017‎ г.‎ ‎10‎:‎40‎ ч. ‎30‎ ‎май‎ ‎2017‎ г.‎ ‎12‎:‎40‎ ч.

Bank said to offer 30,000-euro sweetener to eligible workers
CEO Zielke is targeting 9,600 jobs cuts over four years

Commerzbank AG has sent out early-retirement offers to about 3,000 employees, a first key step in the German lender’s plans to cut 9,600 jobs over four years, two people with knowledge of the matter said.

The offer entitles eligible employees born before 1962 to a 30,000-euro ($34,000) sweetener, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing internal affairs. Excluding bonuses, that’s anywhere from a half to a full year’s pay for unionized employees, according to the people. The bank is giving some employees until the end of June to decide and others until the end of August, according to the people.

Chief Executive Officer Martin Zielke unveiled a turnaround strategy in September that calls for automating operations and shedding about a fifth of the workforce to cut costs after a slump in earnings. Under his predecessor Martin Blessing, the bank eliminated 5,200 jobs to counter volatile markets and record-low interest rates. A spokesman for the bank declined to comment.

Commerzbank’s corporate-client division will be hardest hit, shrinking by about 2,400 employees at the end of 2020, according to an internal document seen by Bloomberg. That compares with 6,611 at the end of 2016. That includes transfers to other units as well as the planned spinoff of the equity markets and commodities unit. The aim is to reduce staff at Frankfurt headquarters to 7,419 from 9,840 through 2020, the document shows.

The final numbers are likely to differ from the initial targets as they are subject to negotiations with the workers’ council, another person said.

Deutsche Bank Woes Deepen in Monte Paschi Fraud Case

bySonia Sirletti

@ssirletti More stories by Sonia Sirletti

,Vernon Silver

@VTSilver More stories by Vernon Silver

, andSergio Di Pasquale